Obama and McCain: Last Weekend Surprises

It may already be too late to the much discussed "October surprise", but the Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain need to be attentive to the fateful "the last weekend."

The straight end of the last two presidential elections was unexpected events, which apparently influenced the outcome of disputes.

Five days from the election of Nov. 4, the chance for a fact that could turn the game in favor of McCain seems increasingly remote, but continues to exist.

"The end of last week can be a very weird and strange period in a presidential campaign," said Steven Schio, political analyst from Carleton College in Minnesota.

"It's when the last voters who were not paying attention are linked. Strange things can happen."

In 2004, Osama bin Laden, leader of Al Qaeda, made an announcement on Friday prior to the election, moving the discussion to the terrorist threat, possibly helping in the reelection of George W. Bush - like his opponent John Kerry concede later.

In 2000, the latest campaign controversy arose on Thursday prior to the election - Bush, then governor of Texas, had been arrested in 1976 for driving drunk, and never publicly revealed the fact.

Advisers said that the complaint claimed the slight edge to Bush that he was in the national polls to vote. The Democrat Al Gore won the national election but lost the dispute in the Electoral College, after the recount of votes in Florida.

Until now, this campaign has been free of such shocks, which already constitute a political tradition in the U.S. - the "October surprises", which change elections a few days from the election (always at the beginning of November). It was thus in 1980, when Jimmy Carter, candidate for reelection, lost to Ronald Reagan after the failure of negotiations to free hostages in Irã.

The phenomenon had almost occurred in 1968, when Lyndon Johnson ordered to stop the bombing in North Vietnan, a week of the election - which did not prevent the Republican Richard Nixon beat the government candidate Hubert Humphrey.

But this year the October surprise came in September - the crisis on Wall Street and the financial package, which changed the polls in favor of Obama, better assessed by voters on economic issues. Such global economic crisis in the midst of a campaign was something unheard.

There are few surprises that McCain and Obama as to prepare for this final weekend. Both now are on strategic states such as Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Colorado.

In national polls, Obama leads by a margin of 3-8 percentage points. In search of Fox News Thursday, the advantage of Democrats fell in a week from 9 to 3 points. In this research, there are still 6 percent undecided. In others, the quota is even greater.