Obama ahead in Pennsylvania and Ohio

A survey released here Wednesday, 29, shows the Democrat candidate for president, Barack Obama, ahead of Republican rival John McCain in key states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the two tied in a rough competition by Florida.

According to research conducted by the Office of Qunnipiac University, Obama leads with 51% of intentions to vote in Ohio, while McCain is with 42%. In Pennsylvania, Obama has 53% of intentions to vote and McCain has 41%, while in Florida is the Democrat with 47% and his Republican rival with 45%, indicating a technical tie.

Another survey released on Wednesday, the day of the Gallup shows that Obama holds a lead over McCain among potential voters and also among registered. The research indicates, however, that the difference between the two candidates fell slightly in the past two days.

No presidential candidate since John F. Kennedy in 1960 won election in the U.S. without any win two of three states, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Former president Bill Clinton was the only one to win the elections in three states in his reelection in 1996, in which obtained 379 votes in the Electoral College and an overwhelming victory over his Republican rival, Senator Bob Dole.

The researcher's Qunnipiac, Peter Brown, cited the government's low approval of the U.S. president, George W. Bush, as a reason for the drop in numbers of McCain. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, President Bush has an approval of only 23% of the population. Already in Florida, Bush is the approval of 27% of the population.

"Essentially, this means that John McCain has loaded an anvil during the entire campaign and this is evident in the numbers," said Brown. The survey interviewed 1425 voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania in 1364 and 1435 in Florida, with a margin of error of 2.6%, 2.7% and 2.6% respectively.

In Florida, the dispute came at the margin of error in intentions to vote. Since the last poll Qunnipiac, 23 October, Obama led with 49% to 44%. But Obama shows have a consistent lead in Ohio, where in the October 23 poll had 52% of intentions to vote, against 38% for McCain, and in Pennsylvania, where he led with 53% and McCain had 40%.

During the Democratic primary, the Democrats lost in the three states to Senator Hillary Clinton, in large part because the votes of the white electorate. But while the Republican now leads among white voters in Florida, with 53% of the voting intentions against 40% for Obama, the Democrat beat McCain by only small margins between the white voters in Ohio, 47% to 46%, and in Pennsylvania , 48% to 47%. If Obama win the most votes of whites in the whole country, will be the first Democrat since 1964 to accomplish that.

Gallup Poll

In the Gallup survey, published Wednesday in the institute's website on the Internet, Obama has 49% of intentions to vote and McCain has 46%, among potential voters, the poll from the traditional model, which takes into account the history of the electoral behavior of people in past votes.

In the poll on the 26th, Obama had 50% of intentions to vote and McCain had 45%. As the margin of error in this type of research is three percentage points up or down, it shows the two virtually tied in technical. The research among potential voters interviewed 2435 people.

The Gallup indicates that the race for the White House became more fierce in recent days. "The present results, based on research done between 26 and 28, show a dispute a little closer." On this night, Barack Obama will use part of the funds of a propaganda campaign to show 30 minutes on broadcast television.

Any possible impact on the voters will appear in the next few days. The Gallup found that only 4% of potential voters are truly undecided at that stage of the campaign, and they do not express a preference for Obama, McCain or any independent candidate, says the institute, emphasizing that in the search among registered voters, the Democrat maintained strong advantage during the entire month of October.